What Does Flu Season Mean for the Global Supply Chain?

By Mark Talens, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy and Solutions Officer

Fall means flu season - and a trip to your local pharmacy or healthcare provider for the flu vaccine. While this might seem simple, vaccinating millions is an incredibly complex process when you take a closer look. Consider the scale: according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 49.8% of Americans over the age of 6 months old receive a flu shot - that’s about 172 million people.

Getting flu shots to that many people is a massive supply chain achievement. But Flu vaccination begins at an even smaller level – the microscopic flu virus itself. Flu – or influenza – is caused by viruses that infect the respiratory tract. These viruses evolve constantly, creating different strains or variants each season. Because it takes time to produce enough vaccines, manufacturers have traditionally relied on historical data to predict the most likely flu variants. They look at flu strain data from past seasons, mutation patterns, and reports from the CDC and WHO to make their best estimate for the upcoming season.  

But viruses change fast, as we all saw during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sometimes, a flu strain can evolve so quickly that it outpaces the vaccine designed to fight it. This creates three main challenges: improving the accuracy of virus predictions, speeding up vaccine manufacturing, and ensuring vaccines reach patients before the virus mutates further.

This is where artificial intelligence (AI) can truly make a difference. While AI often feels like a buzzword, it has real, practical applications for tackling these challenges head-on. Here are a few ways AI can improve virus predictions and help supply chains better prepare for flu season. 

How AI Enhances Virus Prediction

AI has the power to process vast amounts of data far beyond human capabilities. It can quickly analyze a wide range of data sources, including genomic information, global flu patterns, environmental conditions, real-time reports from health systems, and even transportation networks. This process is faster, more cost-effective, and often more accurate than traditional methods.

Machine Learning (ML) models, a subset of AI, can also detect patterns in flu data that might otherwise be missed. These models can analyze virus mutation rates, predict how different strains might evolve, and estimate how they might spread across regions. For example, AI could identify new virus strains by connecting the dots across social media posts, real-time health reports, and human travel patterns. By linking factors like dominant strains to weather conditions or regional trends, AI can make more precise flu forecasts on a global scale.

Data and AI for a Healthier Future

This approach isn’t science fiction—it’s about harnessing the data we already have with smarter systems to make a real impact on public health. By improving the quality and speed of data processing, AI can reduce the severity of flu outbreaks. Ultimately, better flu predictions mean we can produce and distribute vaccines more effectively, helping people stay healthier throughout the flu season.

Ready to learn more? Explore our blog for insights on how AI is transforming manufacturing and supply chain efficiency, helping supply chain leaders like you navigate the complexities of flu season and beyond.